Financial Analysis — P&L and Runway with Claude
From raw P&L to margin diagnosis + 13-week cash flow projection. Founder talks to AI like they would talk to a CFO.
TL;DR
Same mechanic as the sales analysis, now for the financial side. Margin, runway, margin leak, 3 non-obvious cuts — in 12 minutes, with real data.
When this analysis is critical
- You feel cash is “vanishing” but don’t know where
- Recent change that may have broken margin (price, acquisition cost, new supplier)
- Funding or loan decision in the next 60 days
- Competitor cut prices and you need to respond
- Partner asks “how’s the company’s health?” and you don’t have a 30-second answer
Prerequisites
- Claude Pro with Code execution enabled
- File with:
- Monthly P&L for the last 6-12 months (one tab with columns: line · month × months)
- Ideally also: cash flow, current cash position, available working capital
- 5 sentences about your company (sector, model, team, revenue, moment)
Pre-cleanup (3 min)
Same rule as every analysis: spreadsheet must be readable by AI.
- Header on the first row
- P&L lines with consistent names (don’t use “Revenue” one month and “Sales” another)
- No merged cells
- Values as numbers (not text formatted with $)
The master prompt
Paste into Claude with the spreadsheet attached:
You are a senior CFO with 20 years in [SECTOR] in Brazil.
<context>
Company: [NAME] — [1-LINE DESCRIPTION]
Model: [SaaS / service / physical product / e-commerce]
Current revenue: $ [X] / month
Gross payroll: $ [Y] / month
Current cash: $ [Z]
Available credit: $ [W]
Tax regime: [Simples / Lucro Presumido / Lucro Real]
Pending decision: [WHAT I NEED TO DECIDE IN THE NEXT 30 DAYS]
</context>
<data>
[ATTACH P&L + cash flow]
</data>
<task>
1. Calculate margins (gross, operating, EBITDA) by month.
2. Identify trend: growing, stable, or falling?
3. Find the #1 margin leak — which P&L line explains most of the problem?
4. Project runway in 3 scenarios:
- Pessimistic (no cuts, zero growth)
- Base (current pace continues)
- Optimistic (with 1 lever I'll implement)
5. Suggest 3 non-obvious cuts (not "fire someone"):
- For each: $/month savings, operational risk, implementation timeframe
6. Identify 1 forgotten revenue lever (revenue leak): frozen pricing, customer without upgrade, etc.
</task>
<format>
- Executive summary: margin · runway · leak · lever (1 line each)
- Month-by-month margin table
- Top 3 recommended cuts (impact · risk · timeframe)
- Runway scenarios with month-by-month balance
- Final recommendation: cut first, raise first, or grow first?
</format>
Run code to validate calculations. Check at least 2 random rows from the spreadsheet before concluding.What you’ll get back
Sample output (anonymized):
Cash falling, I don't know if it's the sector or my problem
Product payroll grew 31% YoY while revenue grew 9%. Operating margin dropped from 22% to 11% in 8 months. Current runway: 7.2 months without adjustment.
And more:
- Month-by-month margin table with color (green stable, red falling)
- Top 3 cuts: e.g. “Renegotiate AWS plan (1-year Reserved Instances) → $ 8.5k/month, low risk, 14 days”
- Runway scenarios: pessimistic 5.1 months · base 7.2 · optimistic 11.4 (with revenue leak resolved)
- Revenue leak: legacy plan customers (12 of them) paying 35% below the current pricing
Refine through conversation
First version is the skeleton. Go deeper:
“Show evidence for leak #1 — which P&L lines did you cross-reference?”
“Detail the AWS cut. How to negotiate? Who on my team handles this?”
“The legacy plan customers — generate a price increase communication for them. Tone: respectful but firm.”
Export to the board
When you’re satisfied:
“Generate an executive PDF with 1 cover page (summary) + 3 detail pages. Include the 3 critical charts. I’m presenting to the board on Friday.”
Claude uses the pdf Skill automatically. Formatted PDF in ~10 seconds.
- Deferred revenue ≠ recognized revenue. In SaaS, this messes up analysis. State explicitly which base to use.
- Months with bonuses or 13th salary distort the average. Flag it in the context so it's not treated as a trend.
- Indirect costs (overhead) only make sense allocated by % of revenue or by headcount. Define the method.
- Code execution is MANDATORY. Without it, numbers can be inferred wrong. Always confirm: 'run code to validate'.
- Don't confuse scenario with forecast. Pessimistic/base/optimistic are assumptions, not promises. Tell that to your partner/board.
Next step
Take one of the insights and build the dashboard that monitors it automatically: Building a Real Dashboard in Lovable.
Tarefa
Take your P&L (or cash flow) for the last 6 months. Run the master prompt. List the #1 margin leak identified and how much you'd save per month by fixing it.
Leak identified with the P&L line name + impact estimate in $/month (a range works).